Agricultural drought disaster risk evaluation in Guizhou
Li Yanbin1, Song Sihan1, Zhang Zezhong1, Xie Ruyi2
COMPUTER MODELLING & NEW TECHNOLOGIES 2013 17(5C) 223-228
1North China University of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, 450011, Zhengzhou, China
2Song-Liao Water Resources and Hydropower Development Limited Liability Company, 130021, Changchun, China
The paper established the model of agricultural drought disaster risk evaluation and assessment index system, defined disaster risk threshold value by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), weighted synthesis method and natural hazards index method in the case of Xiuwen, Meitan and Xingren County in Guizhou province. Considering factors of natural, social economic, hazard of disaster-causing factors, the exposure and vulnerability of hazard bearing body and drought resistance ability, guided by theory of meteorology, agricultural science, disaster science, natural disaster risk science and other multi-disciplinary theories, scientific of the model is verified by relevance analysis of crop yield losses estimated on the base of agricultural drought disaster temporal series and drought disaster risk index. The result can provide directions and guidance for drought forecast and risk management in Guizhou province and the similar area.