Empirical research on the diffusion of home appliances to the rural areas in china based on Bayesian estimated bass model

Yanhong Guo, Wei Liu

Faculty of Management and Economics, Dalian University of Technology, 116024, China

Quantitative research on the diffusion of Home Appliances to the Rural Areas in China is a very important topic both in theory and in application. Most of the research on diffusion focuses on the discussion and qualitative analysis of the policy. This paper expands the Bass model applications by leading an empirical research based on the history sales data of Home Appliances to the Rural Areas. The model has been estimated by both linear and nonlinear least squares method and Bayesian method separately, and predicts the maximum potential market in the end. This empirical research shows that Bayesian method performs best in predicting the diffusion of Home Appliances to the Rural Areas. Finally, the main factors influencing the policy implementation was analysed. It predicts the periodical sales and gives some suggestions to the government and enterprises accordingly.