Risk forewarning mechanism of ship investment: model and numerical analysis
Yuhua Zhu 1, Yujuan Chen 2
COMPUTER MODELLING & NEW TECHNOLOGIES 2014 18(12A) 462-465
1 College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, No.1550 Haigang Avenue, Pudong New Area, Shanghai 201306, China
2 College of Mathematics and Statistics, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China
The ship investment is a capital intensive and high risk industry with a huge amount of investment and long payback period of investment. Therefore, ship owners, shipyards and banks are very concerned about ship prices fluctuation. This paper takes the containership new building prices as an example. The paper analyzes the causes of the containership new building prices fluctuation risk, and analyzes the trend of the containership new building prices by applying the ARIMA model, a classical time series analysis model. Then it establishes the containership new building prices forewarning mechanism model for ship owners, shipyards or banks to control price risk and improve management level.