An Analysis on the Facilitating Effect of Sino-Burmese oil and gas pipelines on the Regional Economy by System Dynamics

Zhang Hailiang, Lu Man, Lin Yaxi

COMPUTER MODELLING & NEW TECHNOLOGIES 2014 18(12C) 301-306

Faculty of Management & Economics，Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China

Based on system dynamic theory, this article analyzes the influence of the Sino-Burma pipelines on the southwest of China. Taking the Anning Refinery Project as an example, a model of economic development for oil refinery industry has been set up. The paper differentiates the causal relationship between Sino-Burma pipelines and refined oil price in Yunnan province, and analyzes the influence of Anning Refinery Project on Yunnan refined oil supply structure, refined oil price and the promotion of regional economy using Stella software. The results reveal inner mechanism and trends of fluctuations of refined oil price and economy development. It shows that the establishment of the Sino-Burma pipelines will change the structure of supply of energy in Southwest, alleviate the contradiction of supply and demand for energy, help to improve the comprehensive layout for the capacity of oil refining, and optimize resource allocation.