Application Study of the Grey Prediction Model in Emergency Decisions on Accidents in Stadiums

Lu Wenxiao

COMPUTER MODELLING & NEW TECHNOLOGIES 2014 18(12C) 838-842

Hunan Mass Media Vocational Technical College, Changsha 410100, China

Public security is an important problem in the process of social development. Accidents that occur in stadiums are investigated in this study. The focus is on the complicated randomness of such accidents. Grey theory is utilized for modeling, and the grey prediction model is applied to emergency decisions on accidents in stadiums. The GM(1,1) model is adopted to predict accidents in stadiums. Specifically, two models are established: a GM(1,1) model for the number of times accidents occur and a GM(1,1) model related to death tolls in accidents in stadiums. Experimental results show that the two established models satisfy the accuracy required for prediction and exhibit rapid computing speed and small time consumption. These models have good stability in terms of long-term prediction and thus have a potential for practical application.