Safety analysis for expressway based on Bayesian network: a case study in China

Safety analysis for expressway based on Bayesian network: a case study in China

Ling Wang1,3, Hua-pu Lu1, Yi Zheng2,3, Zhijun Qian4


1 Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

2 School of civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, china

3 National Defense Transportation Department,Military Transportation University,Tianjin, China

4 Logistics Department of Air Force, Beijing, China,

The accident rates and the mortality rates of expressway in china show an obviously opposite trend compared with most countries, and they are significantly higher than other classes of highways. Moreover, the rate of devastating accidents on expressway in china is higher, and road safety on expressway in china is still serious. The aim of this research is to attempt to develop the causation of traffic accidents occurred on expressway and seek the accidents mechanisms. This paper presents a safety  analysis for expressway in China, analyzes the accidents occurred on one expressway of Shanxi Province in China, and selects 8 variables from four influence factors including driver characteristics, highway characteristics, vehicle characteristics, and atmospheric characteristics. The authors consider the relationship of these variables and use the Netica Software to develop BN model involved 8 nodes. Then, the sensitivity analysis is processed for each variable. The research draws a conclusion that four variables including cause (the driver’s illegal behavior), experience, weather and lighting were the main cause of the occurrence of accidents on expressway in China.