The study of urban traffic modal splitting method based on MD model under the low-carbon mode

Shimei Wu, Yulong Pei, Guozhu Cheng

COMPUTER MODELLING & NEW TECHNOLOGIES 2014 18(4) 197-202

School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China

Aimed at the problem of overly-simplify in the factors of travel cost in the traffic modal splitting method, built an Urban Traffic Modal Splitting Method Based on MD Model Under the Low-carbon Mode, to predict transportation share rate; Put forward four considerations such as the travel time, cost, safety and low carbon to describe the travel cost on the basis of the application of MD model; Gave the forecasting process of the prediction model and key variables algorithm, applied the model by the examples of DONGGUAN city. The results show that the urban structure of the transportation changed in DONGGUAN with rapid construction, development in traffic and implementation of transport policy, on the one hand, the travel occupies proportion of public transport (including conventional bus and rail transit) will increase significantly in the future, expected to reach more than 25% by 2020; on the other hand, motorcycle travel will gradually fade away.