Statistical analysis and prediction of Qingdao urban consumer price index

Dai Linlin 

School of Qingdao Huanghai College, No.3111, Ling Hai Road, Qingdao Shandong Province, China

In recent years, Qingdao faces inflationary pressure along with the fast development of economy. The urban consumer price index (CPI) is an important measure of regional inflation level. Thus, analysing the influencing factors of the CIP and determining the key factors is necessary to supply scientific evidence for the economic management departments to adjust the industrial structure. This paper filtrates and eliminates six indexes likely to affect urban CPI of Qingdao based on Studentized residual, correlation analysis, and multiple collinearity diagnosis. This paper also performs a statistical analysis of the urban CPI of Qingdao from 2005 to 2012 and draws the conclusion that food price is the largest index that affects CPI. Basing on this conclusion, corresponding prediction models are established to supply statistics for departments that adjust the economy for the future.