Multi-state system reliability assessment based on Bayesian networks
Xiaonan Zhang1, 2, Xiaoyong Lu2
1College of Field Engineering, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210007, China
2The 28th Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, Nanjing 210007, China
This paper considers a problem of multi-state system reliability modelling and assessment. By using the advantages of uncertainty reasoning and figurative expression of Bayesian network, a new method of modelling and assessment of multi-state system reliability based on BN is proposed to determine the nodes of BN and the multiple states of components of system, and to give the probability of each state and then utilizing conditional probability distributing (CPD)to describe the relationship among the component states, so as to express the states of correlated nodes and build a BN model of multi-state system. The model can clearly express the multiple states of system and component and the state probability, and also call directly calculate the system reliability on the basis of multiple state probabilities of component, thereby carrying out qualitative analysis and quantitative assessment of multi-state system reliability. By means of an example of multi-state radar system, we give the detailed multi-state system reliability analysis process based on BN. This paper not only proves the effectiveness of assessment of multi-state system reliability based on BN, but contributes to good help of complex system reliability, safety analysis.